Signal Translator | NUMeRadical

Methodology

For each subject country, the translator identifies trading partners capturing at least 68% of export concentration (≈ 2σ), splits them into Western and Global South blocs, then projects counterparty risk signals through the trade-weighted geometry with impedance matching at each boundary.

Western counterparty signals use blended realised and implied equity risk premia. BRICS+ signals use a hybrid approach: log-M corrected realised ERP for financially repressed economies, sovereign spread plus log-dampened FX volatility for market-spread economies, with ln(1+GDP) weighting to compress China's dominance.

Φ — Bootstrapped MRP

Ψ — Gap to Damodaran (settlement tax)

Western export exposure

Global South export exposure